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Perspectives On Reunification Of Korea

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작성자 작성일00-12-25 00:00 조회2,441회 댓글0건

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Perspectives on Relationship between North Korea and USA in 2000

by Kim Myong Chol,
Executive Director of the Center for Korean-AmericanPeace



At this turn of the century, we should imagine that very, very few are aware that the Korean people have about three to five years to the negotiated territorial reunification of their Land of Morning Calm, which has eluded them for more than half a century after many attempts. The year 2000 signals the beginning of the countdown to the long-awaited process of having the divided country reunified in a bi-system federation. Only then can they afford to settle their long-smoldering moral score with the Americans and the Japanese as well.
Then arise the first two critical questions: What will become of the American forces in South Korea? Who will preside over the reunification of the divided country?. My answers, given below, are quite obvious and will be vindicated by a sequence of events in the next several years.
American Troops in South Korea: Neutralization and Phaseout

The right answer to the first question is based on the Geneva Agreed Framework, hammered out by the North Korean and American diplomats on October 21, 1994. The least noticed but most salient feature of the nuclear accord is the absence of any clause on opt-out or penalty, usually found in an international agreement. Nor is it in the form of a treaty. However, it is binding on the USA to all intents and purposes. Under the nuclear accord the United States pledges to provide two lightwater nuclear reactors on a turnkey basis to North Korea by 2003 in exchange for the freezing of its graphite-moderated reactors. However, the Americans" eventual dismal failure to meet the deadline of 2003 is a foregone conclusion. Apparently it would be mission impossible for the Americans to complete the project by that year, even if they were to race against time round the clock on a crash-project basis. Depending on the situation, the Americans may mark time, citing American presidential elections. It will not affect the countdown to 2003 at all, however.
The options available to the Americans are three-fold: (1) to jettison the agreement and unleash military strikes on North Korea; (2) to throw away the accord and provoke the nuclear arms race involving Japan; (3) to establish diplomatic relations and sign a peace treaty in a bid to throw themselves on the mercy of North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Il. It is entirely an American decision to choose any of the three, none of North Korean business.
The first two options would spell disastrous consequences for America and endangering our planet itself. The Americans could ill afford to have Japan and South Korea going nuclear and opting out of their nuclear umbrella, with their superpower status coming to so abrupt an end. The situation would go out of American control, with the Russians and the Chinese banded together in an increasing anti-US alliance. The 21st century would be one of nightmare for the Americans.
The American policy planners would realize that they will have to settle for the third and last option: to give diplomatic recognition to Pyongyang, sign a peace treaty, phase out their military forces from South Korea. This approach would prove reasonable and feasible enough for them to keep Japan within their fold and maintain their military bases in the island country, which in turn would allow the United States to remain the sole superpower. Traditionally, the American strategy in the Pacific is based on islands dotted in the sea region. In short, South Korea cannot match Japan in terms of strategic security importance to the Americans.
The American factor that has dominated the South Korean scene since end of the last world would be neutralized and phased out. The Americans, which defeated Nazi Germany and militarist Japan in WWII and saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Eastern European socialist camp, know better than to engage North Korea in another war.
If the American policy planners, Republican or Democrat, should lose their minds and launch a military onslaught on North Korea, their hostilities would last less one hour before Washington, New York, Chicago, Tokyo, and Seoul turn into raging infernos in thermonuclear reprisals from North Korea. As bully boys are, Americans are highly selective about their targets. To be more precise, the saying, "once bitten, twice shy," aptly describes American behavior to the Far Easterncountry.
In other words, before we reach 2003, North Korea"s supreme leader Kim Jong Il will emerge the first bloodless winner in the 5,000 years of Korean history while keeping Korean soil and people safe and intact. Apart from him, four names occur to the Korean people as the nation"s foremost military leaders in their history.
In the 7th century Gen. Ulchi Mun Dok repelled the Sui Chinese invasion force; the 11th century witnessed Gen.Kang Gam Chan badly maul the Khitan invaders; the 16th century spotlighted Adm. Yi Sun Sin"s dramatic naval victories over the Japanese aggressors. In the 20th century legendary anti Japanese guerrilla hero Gen. Kim Il Sung became the first in the world to leave the Americans without victory in their history. These four generals are credited with spectacular victories, albeit each had an unavoidable but most unfortunate sequel: Korean soil was totally ravaged, numerous people killed or wounded.
Kim Jong Il is almost certain to prove an extraordinary exception by partly blackmailing and partly maneuvering the Americans into thinking twice and backing down. He will most likely have the Americans sign a peace treaty, establishing diplomatic relations with the North Koreans, and militarily disengaging from South Korea. Under his leadership the Korean people, north, south and abroad, will achieve the moral and emotional release from the centuries-old national resentment.

Kim Jong Il: to Preside Over Negotiated Reunification

Answering the first question will answer the second question.
Successful neutralization and phaseout of the American factor will mean that Kim Jong Il will have accomplished the Herculean twin task of removing the biggest obstacle to the reunification of the land and depriving the ROK and its key instrument of their fundamental raison detre. This will bring great credit to one of the oldest nations on earth, inspire the Korean people with limitless pride and enable them to appreciate the joy of being born, living and dying Koreans.
The leadership of Kim Jong Il as architect of national reunion and rebirth will be fascinating and admirable in the eyes of the Korean population of seventy million and the world community of nations. Whether the South Koreans and people abroad are critical or skeptical of his leadership quality, whether they are opposed to him makes little difference. They will eventually end up in praising him to the sky as the most distinguished military and political leader ever lived in Korean and one of the peerless heroes in world history.
The balance of forces in South Korea will dramatically shift in favor of the democratic and patriotic forces fighting for reunification between North and South Korea. Once hesitant sections of the population will jump on the bandwagon. Democratic dissidents and patriotic activists for reunification and the South Korean people will move to form a broader-based new democratic coalition government.
The new patriotic coalition government will take necessary steps to repeal the National Security Law, release and reinstate those who have been detained and imprisoned on charges of violating it. All those who were detained, tortured, and killed on similar charges will be acquitted and rehabilitated with proper compensation offered.
Disgruntled members of the ousted ROK government and the armed forces might attempt to organize an armed revolt, but to realize how isolated they are, unable to turn to the Americans for support. For the first time in South Korean history after 1945, the Americans will find their position untenable and will have to remain strictly neutral onlookers, refusing to provide support to the rebels.
To be blunt, the ROK government is an illegitimate being from its birth, a carryover of the defunct Japanese government general and a seconed-class ally of the United States. Their main duty is to serve the Americans, not the Korean people. They have been around too long. It is time that the ROK left the stage of history and disappear into oblivion. The American masters cannot afford to keep the ball carrier any longer.




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