[Analysis]Pieces of the Cheonan puzzle
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작성자 Professor Seung… 작성일10-08-05 14:01 조회600회 댓글0건관련링크
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Opinions remain divided over the cause of the sinking of the Cheonan. One theory is that the vessel ran aground early on. This idea was put forward by Shin Sang-chul and Lee Jong-in, who lack doctoral degrees but are rich in first-hand experience, and an identical conclusion was reached by a team of Russian experts. Another theory is that a North Korean torpedo was responsible, a conclusion reached by South Korea’s joint civilian-military investigation team with more than 20 PhDs among its members. The types of evidence presented by the two groups also differ entirely in character. The former group has argued in terms that any sensible person could understand, including the clean condition of the surviving and deceased sailors, the lack of a water column, the damage to the screw propeller’s wings, and the fishing net wrapped around the propeller’s axis. The latter group has presented a chunk of torpedo.
<##IMAGE##> That piece of metal is a phantom without substance, presented by the civilian-military investigation team in order to conceal the truth. Regarding the degree of corrosion on its surface, Lee Jong-in conducted his own experiment with metal corrosion and argued that the team’s claim that the metal had been underwater for just 50 days was false. This is consistent with the naked-eye analysis by Russian experts. The team presented an old piece of metal that anyone with common sense would conclude had been underwater for years as the “conclusive” evidence proving that a North Korean torpedo sank the Cheonan.
There are steps of logic that back the claims of the joint civilian-military investigation team. First, the fragment has to be North Korean-made, and second, the torpedo has to have exploded right next to the Cheonan. The words “No. 1” scrawled in Korean on the fragment were presented to bolster the first claim, and the adhesive substance data for the second. If either one of these is wrong, the argument made by the team is incorrect.
To begin, the “No. 1” could logically have been written by South Koreans as well, and thus could not be adopted as evidence in the courtroom of a democratic society. Even the civilian-military investigation team denied its evidentiary validity, saying one could make the claim that it was not North Korean-made because the pigment for the blue ink was “Solvent Blue 5,” patented by the South Korean company Monami.
Song Tae-ho, mechanical engineering professor of the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), recently claimed that the ink lettering might not burn away in the heat of the explosion. Dr. Song calculated that there was not even a 0.1-degree Celsius rise in temperature at the back of the disk where the “No. 1” was written. If this is so, however, then it is impossible to explain how aluminum, an ingredient in explosive material, became stuck to a propeller that was farther away than the disk from the warhead containing the explosive.
According to Dr. Song’s claims, it would take around 0.15 seconds for the radius of the bubble to reach the propeller at the very end of the torpedo, and at that time the temperature of substances stemming from the bubble and explosion would be below zero degrees Celsius. At such a temperature, aluminum oxide would solidify and could not adhere to the propeller.
In other words, Song’s claims conflict with those of the joint civilian-military investigation team, which said that the aluminum oxide became stuck as a result of the explosion. Moreover, the team claimed that the paint on the exterior of the torpedo burned away completely due to the heat, and Dr. Song’s claims present the exact opposite logic.
So what could have led Song to obtain findings showing that, contrary to popular belief, temperatures do not rise even when a torpedo explosion occurs nearby? Despite the fact that all explosions are irreversible, he used the equation PVγ=C, derived from textbook-style reversible processes in which expansion occurs relatively slowly while pressure within the bubble and in the water are kept equal at all times. A third-year physics undergraduate would know that the initial expansion of the bubble gas as it reached the propeller would be similar to an irreversible process in which gas expands into a vacuum. This is because the air pressure inside the bubble would be over 100 thousand times greater than outside. In this process, an ideal gas has the same temperature before and after the expansion. Since the process is irreversible, a precise calculation is nearly impossible, but an approximation would show that the temperature when the bubble reaches the propeller is extremely high, close to 1,000 degrees Celsius at a minimum.
The second piece of “scientific” evidence presented, the EDS/XRD data, would require at least a master’s degree in a specialized field to understand, and is beyond the ken of the general public, so it appears to have lent the team some tremendous prestige and force for a time. Listening to the florid and difficult explanations, touted as a “world’s first discovery,” from people carrying dazzling doctoral degrees would be enough to leave most people disheartened. However, a brief look by Dr. Panseok Yang, a specialist in EDS, and myself, a specialist in XRD, revealed that the team’s data did not make sense, and that some data had clearly been fabricated. The team’s refutations to the issues raised by Dr. Yang and me were studded with falsehoods. Since the team’s final report is supposed to come out on Friday, I plan to do a summary report afterwards.
A look at the way the Cheonan incident has unfolded thus far shows that the activities of people in the two degree-bearing groups have mostly to do with the phantoms. Most of the doctors on the civilian-military investigation team, and lately Dr. Song in addition, have been hard at work building and maintaining the phantoms, and many of the scientists writing on science community websites, along with Dr. Yang and myself, are trying to tear away the curtain.
Now is the time to move on the next stage: uncovering the truth about the sinking that is hiding behind that curtain. In fact, this stage has already begun. The starting point, as I see it, came when the team gave a briefing to media groups on June 29. The team used Newton’s “law of inertia” to explain the change in the screw wing’s condition, and journalist Roh Jong-myeon asked the pivotal question, “If it was inertia, shouldn’t the direction of the force be the exact opposite?”
In my view, this question marked the start of our approach to the real truth about the cause of the Cheonan’s sinking. The Russian investigation team would subsequently reach the exact same conclusion. Recently, Chungnam National University Professor Nho In-sik, who was in charge of the change in the condition of the screw wings for the joint civilian-military investigation team, attested that his own simulation results differed from the team’s claims.
A doctoral degree is not essential for uncovering the truth about the Cheonan’s sinking. It is enough to have the reasoning power of a group with common sense. People with such degrees have another role besides clearing away the phantoms that arise during the process. It is to bring to light who made those phantoms, and how. It would suffice simply to conduct another version of the team’s mock explosion experiment. This may take years to happen, in light of the current political situation.
As this incident has played out, South Korean society has shown outstanding collective reasoning, so why have we so far been unable to determine the truth about the sinking? The reason is that the South Korean government is concealing the relevant information. A National Assembly inquiry is needed, but the current Assembly is neglecting its proper duties. However, even with the limited information, cracks are showing. One of these is the change in the screw’s condition.
Collective intelligence can uncover the truth about the Cheonan.
<##IMAGE##> That piece of metal is a phantom without substance, presented by the civilian-military investigation team in order to conceal the truth. Regarding the degree of corrosion on its surface, Lee Jong-in conducted his own experiment with metal corrosion and argued that the team’s claim that the metal had been underwater for just 50 days was false. This is consistent with the naked-eye analysis by Russian experts. The team presented an old piece of metal that anyone with common sense would conclude had been underwater for years as the “conclusive” evidence proving that a North Korean torpedo sank the Cheonan.
There are steps of logic that back the claims of the joint civilian-military investigation team. First, the fragment has to be North Korean-made, and second, the torpedo has to have exploded right next to the Cheonan. The words “No. 1” scrawled in Korean on the fragment were presented to bolster the first claim, and the adhesive substance data for the second. If either one of these is wrong, the argument made by the team is incorrect.
To begin, the “No. 1” could logically have been written by South Koreans as well, and thus could not be adopted as evidence in the courtroom of a democratic society. Even the civilian-military investigation team denied its evidentiary validity, saying one could make the claim that it was not North Korean-made because the pigment for the blue ink was “Solvent Blue 5,” patented by the South Korean company Monami.
Song Tae-ho, mechanical engineering professor of the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), recently claimed that the ink lettering might not burn away in the heat of the explosion. Dr. Song calculated that there was not even a 0.1-degree Celsius rise in temperature at the back of the disk where the “No. 1” was written. If this is so, however, then it is impossible to explain how aluminum, an ingredient in explosive material, became stuck to a propeller that was farther away than the disk from the warhead containing the explosive.
According to Dr. Song’s claims, it would take around 0.15 seconds for the radius of the bubble to reach the propeller at the very end of the torpedo, and at that time the temperature of substances stemming from the bubble and explosion would be below zero degrees Celsius. At such a temperature, aluminum oxide would solidify and could not adhere to the propeller.
In other words, Song’s claims conflict with those of the joint civilian-military investigation team, which said that the aluminum oxide became stuck as a result of the explosion. Moreover, the team claimed that the paint on the exterior of the torpedo burned away completely due to the heat, and Dr. Song’s claims present the exact opposite logic.
So what could have led Song to obtain findings showing that, contrary to popular belief, temperatures do not rise even when a torpedo explosion occurs nearby? Despite the fact that all explosions are irreversible, he used the equation PVγ=C, derived from textbook-style reversible processes in which expansion occurs relatively slowly while pressure within the bubble and in the water are kept equal at all times. A third-year physics undergraduate would know that the initial expansion of the bubble gas as it reached the propeller would be similar to an irreversible process in which gas expands into a vacuum. This is because the air pressure inside the bubble would be over 100 thousand times greater than outside. In this process, an ideal gas has the same temperature before and after the expansion. Since the process is irreversible, a precise calculation is nearly impossible, but an approximation would show that the temperature when the bubble reaches the propeller is extremely high, close to 1,000 degrees Celsius at a minimum.
The second piece of “scientific” evidence presented, the EDS/XRD data, would require at least a master’s degree in a specialized field to understand, and is beyond the ken of the general public, so it appears to have lent the team some tremendous prestige and force for a time. Listening to the florid and difficult explanations, touted as a “world’s first discovery,” from people carrying dazzling doctoral degrees would be enough to leave most people disheartened. However, a brief look by Dr. Panseok Yang, a specialist in EDS, and myself, a specialist in XRD, revealed that the team’s data did not make sense, and that some data had clearly been fabricated. The team’s refutations to the issues raised by Dr. Yang and me were studded with falsehoods. Since the team’s final report is supposed to come out on Friday, I plan to do a summary report afterwards.
A look at the way the Cheonan incident has unfolded thus far shows that the activities of people in the two degree-bearing groups have mostly to do with the phantoms. Most of the doctors on the civilian-military investigation team, and lately Dr. Song in addition, have been hard at work building and maintaining the phantoms, and many of the scientists writing on science community websites, along with Dr. Yang and myself, are trying to tear away the curtain.
Now is the time to move on the next stage: uncovering the truth about the sinking that is hiding behind that curtain. In fact, this stage has already begun. The starting point, as I see it, came when the team gave a briefing to media groups on June 29. The team used Newton’s “law of inertia” to explain the change in the screw wing’s condition, and journalist Roh Jong-myeon asked the pivotal question, “If it was inertia, shouldn’t the direction of the force be the exact opposite?”
In my view, this question marked the start of our approach to the real truth about the cause of the Cheonan’s sinking. The Russian investigation team would subsequently reach the exact same conclusion. Recently, Chungnam National University Professor Nho In-sik, who was in charge of the change in the condition of the screw wings for the joint civilian-military investigation team, attested that his own simulation results differed from the team’s claims.
A doctoral degree is not essential for uncovering the truth about the Cheonan’s sinking. It is enough to have the reasoning power of a group with common sense. People with such degrees have another role besides clearing away the phantoms that arise during the process. It is to bring to light who made those phantoms, and how. It would suffice simply to conduct another version of the team’s mock explosion experiment. This may take years to happen, in light of the current political situation.
As this incident has played out, South Korean society has shown outstanding collective reasoning, so why have we so far been unable to determine the truth about the sinking? The reason is that the South Korean government is concealing the relevant information. A National Assembly inquiry is needed, but the current Assembly is neglecting its proper duties. However, even with the limited information, cracks are showing. One of these is the change in the screw’s condition.
Collective intelligence can uncover the truth about the Cheonan.
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