Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush may bow to political pressure from within the U.S. and agree to direct talks with the nuclear-armed North Korea, according to a former State Department specialist on Kim Jong Il"s regime.

``President Bush doesn"t change his policy because of external pressure,"" Kenneth Quinones, 63, said in an interview on Jeju island, South Korea. ``If he"s going to change in the near future, it"s because of domestic political pressure.""

The U.S. has balked at North Korea"s demands for bilateral talks, urging the Asian nation to return to six-nation negotiations on ending its weapons program. Kim joined the club of nuclear nations with an underground bomb test on Oct. 9.

A Republican Party failure to keep control of Congress in the Nov. 7 elections would likely encourage Bush to begin direct negotiations, according to Quinones, a former State Department director of North Korean affairs. Democratic candidates are backed by 53 percent of likely voters, according to a Newsweek poll of 1,002 people, conducted Oct 19-20 with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

``In Washington, surprisingly, there is within the Republican Party a growing pressure on Bush to show flexibility,"" said Quinones. ``If the Republicans lose, then yes, I have no doubt Bush will show greater flexibility.""

Quinones, a professor of Korean Studies at Japan"s Akita International University, was involved in so-called back channel talks between the State Department and North Korea"s delegation to the United Nations till February this year. He was in South Korea last week to give a lecture.

Weapons Agreement

The U.S. and North Korea in 1994 reached an agreement for North Korea to abandon its weapons program to get assistance to build two reactors to provide power.

The accord unraveled when the North admitted in October 2002 it was proceeding with its weapons plan in violation of the pact. Bush had already branded the country part of an ``axis of evil"" for developing weapons of mass destruction and selling drugs and counterfeit money. Iraq and Iran were in Bush"s axis.

North Korea must return to the six-nation talks, which include the U.S., China, Russia, Japan and South Korea, and the U.S. won"t negotiate outside of that framework, according to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Kim"s regime has refused to return until the U.S. removes financial sanctions imposed last year for money-laundering and counterfeiting.

``President Bush"s whole claim of `I want a peaceful diplomatic solution, but I won"t negotiate" -- it"s a total contradiction,"" Quinones said. ``You can"t have one without the other.""

Heightened Tensions

The nuclear test heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula, where North and South remain technically at war because no peace treaty was signed to end their 1950-53 conflict, and raised concerns of a regional arms race.

``Moderate right-wing factions"" including former Secretary of State James Baker and former President George Bush will urge the administration to meet with the North, Quinones said, while six-party nations may expect Washington to soften its stance after their support for U.N sanctions imposed Oct. 14.

One possible compromise is over $24 million of North Korean funds frozen at Banco Delta Asia in Macau, China, after the U.S. Treasury Department in September last year designated the lender as a money-laundering threat. North Korea offered to transfer the money to a New York account, allowing the U.S. to monitor its distribution, according to Quinones.

``The Treasury Department flatly rejected the idea,"" Quinones said, without specifying where he obtained the information. ``If it comes to a choice between Washington accepting that compromise and allowing the transfer of funds, or war, everybody will push Washington to take the compromise offer.""

Quinones said he does not expect Japan, Taiwan or South Korea to begin nuclear weapons programs while the international community to trying to revive negotiations.

``If that fails, if the six-party talks completely collapse, then we could see an unraveling of the present balance of power.""

To contact the reporter on this story: Heejin Koo in Jeju at hjkoo@bloomberg.net