West alert to Russian moves in Moldova and eastern Ukraine
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작성자 최고관리자 작성일14-03-26 04:40 조회4,809회 댓글0건관련링크
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West alert to Russian moves in
Moldova and eastern Ukraine
Crimea’s
annexation leads EU to strengthen ties with Moldova and Georgia
A decade ago, the work of the European
Union’s commissioner for enlargement would take him to some of the continent’s
fabled cities, places such as Prague and Budapest, as central Europe prepared
to join the bloc. The current commissioner, Stefan Füle, now finds himself in
more unfamiliar territory as the EU extends influence ever deeper into the
former Soviet Union, as part of a long diplomatic struggle with Russia that has
acquired an alarming military aspect in Ukraine.
In January, Mr Füle visited the provincial
Moldovan town of Comrat to talk about the benefits of the country signing an
association agreement with the EU – rather than, by inference, moving back
towards Moscow, Moldova’s Soviet-era master.
Comrat is the capital of Gagauzia, a region
of Moldova that takes its name from the ethnic group that comprises most of its
155,000 population. The Gagauz are Turkic Orthodox Christians who speak
Russian, and declared independence during the collapse of the Soviet Union, fearing
Moldova would unite with close neighbour Romania.
Frozen conflict
Gagauzia ended up with autonomy, but the same fears triggered a war in which Transdniestria, a Moldovan region of Slavic Russian speakers, secured de facto sovereignty. For more than 20 years Moldova has stumbled along with the grumbling Gagauz and a “frozen” conflict with internationally unrecognised, Moscow-backed Transdniestria.
Now Russia’s annexation of Crimea has
prompted Brussels to strengthen ties rapidly with Moldova and Georgia, fearing
Moscow may destabilise these small, relatively weak states rather than see them
take a big stride towards the West.
The EU wants to sign association deals with
them by June. But, despite Mr Füle’s efforts, all is not well in Gagauzia and
Transdniestria. In a February 2nd referendum that Moldova’s government called
illegal, 97.2 per cent of voters in Gagauzia opposed integration with the EU,
and 98.4 per cent backed closer ties with a Moscow-led customs union of former
Soviet states.
The Gagauz fear their agricultural products
would find no place in the huge, unfamiliar and fiercely competitive EU, and
their traditional Russian market would be lost.
They also suspect EU integration would mask a
form of unification with Romania. With ominous echoes of Crimea, Gagauz
deputies backed measures to “prevent the destabilisation of the
social-political situation” in the region, including the formation of so-called
self-defence units.
Transdniestria is also stirring, and accuses
Ukraine of preventing its residents and goods from crossing the de facto
frontier.
Kiev has tightened border security in recent
weeks to prevent alleged Russian provocateurs fomenting anti-government unrest
in southern and eastern cities.
Steal a march on Putin
The local parliament is moving to adopt Russian state law in Transdniestria, and last week its speaker asked Moscow to annexe the region of 500,000 people.
“We have to steal a march on Putin, he has to
know that he cannot do in Moldova what he did in Crimea,” said Jean- Claude
Juncker, the former Luxembourg premier who wants to be next head of the
European Commission. “Otherwise Moldova could be the next victim of Russian
aggression.”
Moldova, Europe’s poorest state, relies on
Russia for energy and Moscow banned imports of its wine late last year, raising
further pressure on the pro-EU government.
Moscow props up two separatist regions of
Georgia that it recognised as independent states after invading in 2008, and
Nato’s supreme allied commander in Europe, US general Philip Breedlove, warned that Russia may have similar plans for
Moldova.
“If Russia is worried about a country moving
towards the West, the way to solve that is an incursion, a frozen conflict, and
now no one wants to think about bringing that nation aboard into Nato because
it might mean conflict with Russia,” he said. He warned that Russian military
formations near Ukraine’s border after a series of exercises were “very, very
sizeable and very, very ready”.
“There is absolutely sufficient force
postured on the eastern border of Ukraine to run to Transdniestria if the
decision was made to do that and that is very worrisome,” Gen Breedlove said.
Moscow has helped stir up opposition to the
new government in eastern and southern Ukraine, but last weekend’s protests
there passed off peacefully. Many analysts now think a full invasion is
unlikely, and that the Kremlin may be satisfied for now to keep the region
unstable ahead of May 25th presidential elections, and to fan calls for a
referendum on making Ukraine a federation – a move that would weaken pro-EU
Kiev and empower largely Russian-speaking provinces.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/west-alert-to-russian-moves-in-moldova-and-eastern-ukraine-1.1736587
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