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재협상 득실계산 해보니 총 손실 추정액 3조7967억원

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작성자 민족통신 작성일10-12-06 20:24 조회4,625회 댓글2건

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한·미 자유무역협정(FTA) 재협상이 마무리되면서 우리 경제에 미치는 실질적인 득실이 관심이다.

정부는 한·미 FTA가 발효되면 10년간 실질 국내총생산(GDP)이 6% 증가하고 일자리는 34만개 늘어날 것으로 보고 있다. 이는 정부가 2007년 공식발표한 한·미 FTA 효과에 대한 보고서 내용인데, 이번 재협상에서 자동차 부문의 양보를 하고 돼지고기 등에서 이득을 얻었다 해도 이 같은 중장기 거시경제적 효과는 크게 달라지지 않는다는 것이 정부와 국책연구기관의 입장이다. 반면 정부가 당초 발표한 한·미 FTA 효과 자체가 과장돼 있는 데다 이번 재협상으로 우리나라는 최소 3조8000억원의 손해를 보게 됐다는 주장도 제기되고 있다.

국책연구기관인 대외경제정책연구원(KIEP) 관계자는 6일 “한·미 FTA 재협상에서 자동차와 돼지고기 등에서 일부 변화가 있지만 장기적으로 볼 때 수혜산업과 피해산업의 변동이 없다”며 “자동차산업 등에는 일부 영향이 있겠지만 거시경제적 효과에서는 기존 발표된 수준에서 큰 변화가 없다”고 말했다. 이에 따라 GDP 6% 성장 등 2007년 발표된 한·미 FTA 효과는 그대로 유효하다고 이 관계자는 덧붙였다. 특히 이번 재협상으로 FTA 발효가 당겨질 수 있게 돼 우리 경제에는 그만큼 이득이 된다는 것이 정부와 국책연구기관의 시각이다.

하지만 FTA의 경제적 효과는 모델을 어떻게 설정하는가에 따라 천차만별로 나온다. 실제 국제통상연구소가 지난해 새로운 모델과 2004년 기준 데이터를 입력해 분석한 결과는 한·미 FTA로 인한 GDP 증가율이 장기적으로 0.13%에 불과했다.

여기에 이번 재협상을 통해 한·미 FTA에서 한국이 가장 큰 이익을 챙기는 자동차 부문에서 대폭적인 양보가 이뤄졌기 때문에 전체적인 FTA 효과도 더욱 축소될 수밖에 없다. 한신대 이해영 교수는 “자동차 부문의 관세 철폐가 4년 연기되면 우리나라는 4조원가량의 손실을 보게 된다”며 “돼지고기(293억원)와 의약품 허가특허 연계(1740억원) 부문에서 이익이 발생한다 해도 전체적으로 이번 재협상을 통해 한국은 3조8000억원 정도의 손해를 보게 됐다”고 분석했다. 이 교수는 미국의 자동차 관세가 철폐되면 경제효과가 매년 8억6000만달러(약 1조원)에 달한다는 2007년 산업연구원의 보고서를 바탕으로 이같이 추산했다.

정부가 34만개 늘어날 것으로 보는 일자리 효과도 이번 재협상으로 영향을 받을 전망이다. 양국 정상은 “윈-윈(win-win)”이라고 평했지만 일자리 창출에서도 한·미 양국 간 일정 부분 ‘비대칭성’ 문제가 불거질 수밖에 없다. 버락 오바마 미국 대통령은 4일(현지시간) 백악관에서 직접 한·미 FTA 재협상 타결 환영 성명을 발표하고 “이번 획기적 합의로 미국의 재화 수출이 연간 110억달러 늘어나고 최고 7만개의 일자리가 창출될 것으로 기대하고 있다”고 말했다.

투기자본감시센터 허영구 공동대표는 “미국이 한국 자동차에 대한 관세 2.5%를 4년간 유지키로 한 것도 결국 현대·기아차에 어려운 수출보다는 미국 현지 공장 투자를 유도하려는 것”이라며 “이에따라 울산 등 자동차 공단지역이 공동화 될 우려가 있다”고 말했다.

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